Reform UK's fiscal plans: what the numbers actually say

Reform UK's policy platform promises some of the biggest tax cuts in modern British political history — raising the income tax threshold, slashing corporation tax, and cutting fuel duty among others. It also claims to have found the savings to pay for them. Independent economists disagree. Sharply.

The full Reform UK fiscal picture (£bn per year)

Policy	Saving (£bn)	Cost (£bn)	Running total (£bn)
Tax cuts
Raise income tax threshold to £20,000	—	−50.0	−50.0
Raise higher rate threshold to £70,000	—	−8.0	−58.0
Cut corporation tax to 15%	—	−37.0	−95.0
Raise inheritance tax threshold to £2m	—	−2.0	−97.0
Cut fuel duty by 20p	—	−5.0	−102.0
Scrap VAT on energy bills	—	−1.5	−103.5
Other tax relief (stamp duty, IR35, NICs)	—	−5.0	−108.5
Spending increases
NHS spending increase	—	−17.0	−125.5
Policing & prison capacity	—	−4.0	−129.5
Deportation Command & detention centres	—	−3.0	−132.5
Claimed savings
Cut "wasteful" government spending	+50.0	—	−82.5
Stop Bank of England QE interest payments (disputed — real value ~£20bn)	+35.0	—	−47.5
Cut overseas aid	+6.0	—	−41.5
Immigration enforcement savings (10yr estimate)	+4.2	—	−37.3
Scrap net zero subsidies	+15.0	—	−22.3
Welfare reform / stricter assessments	+5.0	—	−17.3
Subtotal (Reform's own figures)	+115.2	−132.5	−17.3
Independent adjustments (IFS / Tax Policy Associates)
Tax cuts underestimated by Reform	—	−18.0	−35.3
QE saving overstated (Neidle estimate)	−15.0	—	−50.3
Welfare/efficiency savings unachievable in full	−15.0	—	−65.3
Estimated real annual shortfall			≈ −£65bn/yr

Sources: Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) manifesto reaction, June 2024; Tax Policy Associates analysis, June 2024; Reform UK manifesto 2024. Figures are estimates; some policies lack official costing.

Why the gap exists

Reform present a gap of around £17bn in their own figures. Independent analysts put the real hole at £33–65bn per year.

The problem	Why the numbers don't hold up	Reform claims	Real estimate
Costs are underestimated
Corporation tax cut 25% → 15%	Reform costed all business tax cuts at £18bn/yr. The IFS says the corporation tax cut alone costs more than that in the long run — the real figure is closer to £37bn/yr.	£18bn	£37bn+
Income tax threshold £12,570 → £20,000	Tax Policy Associates recalculated and found the real cost of all personal tax cuts combined is at least £88bn — not the £70bn Reform claims.	£70bn	£88bn+
NHS pledge Eliminate waiting lists in 2 years	The IFS says the proposed £17bn/yr increase would not be "nearly enough" to meet this commitment. The real cost of delivering it would be significantly higher.	£17bn	Much more
Savings are overstated
Stop BoE QE interest Paying banks on reserves	Reform claims £35bn/yr. Tax expert Dan Neidle calculates it is overstated by at least £15bn — and the cost would partly fall on businesses and consumers, not just banks.	£35bn	~£20bn
Cut "wasteful" spending Across all departments	£50bn in efficiency savings with no detail on where. The IFS says this "would almost certainly require substantial cuts to the quantity or quality of public services" — not just cutting waste.	£50bn	Unverified
Immigration savings Deportations & ILR changes	Reform projects large long-term savings, but the upfront cost of deportation flights, detention centres, and legal challenges is substantial and uncosted. Savings are a 10-year projection, not near-term.	£42bn over 10 yrs	Disputed
The structural problem
No detail on what gets cut The £300bn state reduction	Reform's deputy leader confirmed the goal is reducing the state to 35% of GDP — implying ~£300bn in cuts. But the manifesto never specifies which services, departments, or programmes would be reduced.	Vague	Uncosted
Growth assumption Economy fixes the gap	Reform implies faster growth pays for much of this. The IFS says even "extremely optimistic" growth assumptions don't close the gap — they never have for any party that has tried this approach.	Optimistic	Not enough
Estimated real annual shortfall — IFS / Tax Policy Associates		£33–65bn / year

Sources: IFS manifesto reaction (June 2024); Tax Policy Associates (June 2024); Tax Journal analysis of Reform tax plans; UNISON policy examination (April 2026).